Bitcoin at 98k: Pullback or Start of a New Trend?

Show Notes

Bitcoin is sliding into a volatile but revealing moment, and Matthew spends this episode walking through what the recent drop toward 98k signals for the broader market. Using UTXO profit and loss data, long term holder behavior, and realized profit and loss trends, he shows why the current pullback feels uncomfortable but remains far from the conditions that marked past cycle tops. Matthew highlights the unusual nature of this cycle, noting three major impulse waves instead of the one or two seen in earlier runs, and explains how rotation, ETF demand, and long term holder distribution have reshaped the market structure. He then compares Bitcoin’s power trend to the explosive short term growth of gold and the top eight tech companies, each running near 40 percent CAGR. This competition for capital, driven by AI infrastructure spending and gold’s surge, adds pressure but also sets up potential opportunities if Bitcoin becomes cheap relative to these assets. Matthew closes with political commentary, global tensions, and why macro instability tends to favor both Bitcoin and gold. Throughout the episode, he emphasizes that nothing resembles a blow off top, and that most indicators still point toward midterm strength despite short term volatility. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 298 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bitcoin Price Analysis and On-Chain Indicators 00:05:38 - Bitcoin UTXO Profit Analysis and Market Cycles 00:11:43 - Bitcoin Realized Profit Analysis and Trends 00:14:23 - Analyzing Realized Losses in Market Cycles 00:16:57 - Cycle Theory and Valuation Metrics Analysis 00:20:45 - Bitcoin Pullback: Profit Taking and Rotation Cycles 00:28:01 - Bitcoin vs Tech Stocks Market Competition 00:31:58 - Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Analysis and Trends 00:39:12 - Bitcoin's Power Curve vs Exponential Growth 00:51:58 - Bitcoin Cycles and Market Shakeout Territory 00:57:42 - US Aid Delays and Bitcoin's Underwater Positions 01:07:14 - On-Chain Data and Market Distribution Signals 01:14:28 - Bitcoin Correlation to Power Law vs Economy 01:17:25 - Bitcoin Network Revenue vs Gold Mining 01:23:42 - Bitcoin Bullish, Tech Valuation Targets Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792