Bitcoin at the Edge of Trend: Bottom Forming or Breakdown Ahead?

Show Notes

In this episode, Matthew analyzes where Bitcoin sits on the power trend curve and explores whether we’re witnessing the formation of a bottom or the beginning of a break below the trend. He walks through percentile trendlines, explains how this cycle differs from prior ones, and notes the unique behavior of recent price action, including a flatlining trendline for the first time in years. While the Bitcoin network continues to grow, market participants seem paralyzed by indecision. Matthew outlines several scenarios for Q4 and 2025, reinforcing why power curves remain one of the most statistically sound tools in macro analysis. This episode is a timely check-in for anyone wondering if we’re headed up from here—or if the curve is finally breaking. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 264 00:00:00 - Power Curve Research Update 00:02:30 - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Models 00:10:25 - Bitcoin and Gold Price Trends 00:13:39 - Bitcoin Valuation and Market Trends 00:17:08 - Bitcoin Price vs. Stock to Flow Analysis 00:34:21 - Bitcoin Power Curve Analysis 00:40:40 - Stock-to-Flow Analysis of Gold and Silver 00:45:15 - Understanding Gresham's Law and Currency Standards 00:49:05 - Understanding Gold and Silver Valuation 00:51:28 - Understanding Price Fixing and Gresham's Law 00:55:22 - Understanding Bitcoin's Growth Patterns 01:02:36 - Analyzing Gold's Growth Trends 01:06:37 - Understanding the Rule of 72 01:29:19 - Bitcoin Growth Trends and Projections 01:33:13 - Central Banks and Gold Reserves Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.