Show Notes
In this episode of Porkopolis Economics, Matthew provides a detailed update on Bitcoin’s power law, explaining why the recent drop below $60,000 does not invalidate Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Instead, he argues that the current correction is resetting the lower quantile bands, much like previous bear markets following the 2014 crypto winter, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse. While acknowledging that the bottoming process could continue for several more months, he maintains that Bitcoin remains at one of the lowest historical valuations relative to its long-term power curve. Matthew also revisits log-periodic cycle analysis, discussing work by Giovanni Santostasi and how harmonic cycles may help explain shorter-term price fluctuations around Bitcoin’s broader power-law trajectory. Although he views these models as promising, he emphasizes that they are far more sensitive than the underlying power law, which continues to explain the vast majority of Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 380 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intrp 00:01:05 - Bitcoin Price Cycles and Power Law Analysis 00:03:02 - Power Law Analysis and Log Periodic Cycles 00:07:10 - Bitcoin Price Bands and Quantile Analysis 00:08:09 - Bitcoin Power Law and UTXO Loss Analysis 00:15:00 - ETF Impact on Bitcoin Cycles and UTXO Dynamics 00:16:59 - Bitcoin Performance Against Turkish Lira 00:18:51 - Bitcoin Power Curves Across Currencies 00:21:03 - Bitcoin Performance Against Weak Currencies 00:23:02 - Bitcoin's Strong Returns Across Currency Pairs 00:25:13 - Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle and DCA Strategy Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.
