Bitcoin Can Fall and Still Be Right on Track

Show Notes

This episode is a deep reset on expectations, risk, and what the Bitcoin power curve is actually telling us right now. Matthew opens by addressing a reality many avoid discussing. Bitcoin can still fall. He explains how even a move toward the lowest percentiles on the curve would remain historically valid and why preparing mentally for downside is part of disciplined long term investing. Using updated percentile bands, he shows where true risk zones sit through 2026 and why levels that feel catastrophic emotionally are often statistically normal. Matthew then dismantles stock to flow modeling by directly comparing it against the power curve using out of sample testing. He demonstrates how stock to flow misses Bitcoin’s structure by hundreds of thousands of dollars when projected forward, while the power curve remains within a few thousand dollars even when deprived of post 2016 data. This section reinforces why scale invariance and network growth matter more than scarcity narratives. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 313 Chapters: 00:00:05 - Bitcoin Price Levels and Power Curve Analysis 00:05:42 - Power Curve Model vs Stock to Flow 00:09:58 - Bitcoin's Historical Low and Gold Comparison 00:11:50 - Bitcoin's Market Cap vs Global Money Supply 00:19:58 - Bitcoin's Growth Against Global Money Supply 00:22:54 - Understanding Global Broad Money Supply 00:25:19 - Bitcoin's Percentage of Global Money Supply 00:28:38 - Bitcoin's Independence From Money Supply 00:32:44 - Bitcoin and Monetary Base Growth Projections 00:35:48 - Bitcoin Volatility and Dip Buying Strategy 00:37:23 - Bitcoin Volatility Trends and Price Projections 00:41:16 - Bitcoin Power Curve and Long-Term Returns 00:46:10 - Bitcoin Price Follows Power Law Curve 00:49:26 - Why Price Predictions Are Just Gambling Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792