Bitcoin Drops Below Trend

Show Notes

This episode covers Bitcoin’s recent drop below its median trend value, the growing anxiety in the market, and the importance of zooming out to understand long term valuation. Matthew begins by revisiting the Bitcoin power curve in USD and explains that Bitcoin is now trading below the 50th percentile for the first time in years. He walks through how this compares across currencies such as the euro, yen, rupee, naira, and lira, showing that weaker currencies often keep Bitcoin above the median due to rapid fiat debasement. The contrast highlights how different the experience feels depending on where you live. Matthew then shifts to Bitcoin priced in gold, which he calls one of the most important charts to watch right now. Bitcoin is extremely cheap relative to gold, entering the lower tenth percentiles that only appeared in rare stress events like 2020 and 2022. He explains why this metric offers a clear view into long term relative value and why gold bugs who ignored Bitcoin may soon face difficult choices. The episode also explores miner revenue, long term industry comparisons, and the gap between Bitcoin and major production sectors like oil and gold. Matthew closes with a reminder that short term fear does not override trend math. Bitcoin remains positioned for strong long term outcomes even if volatility continues into year end. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 303 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bitcoin Charts and Market Analysis 00:03:02 - Bitcoin Price Analysis Across Multiple Currencies 00:09:22 - Bitcoin Price Analysis Across Global Currencies 00:18:42 - Bitcoin Cheap Relative to Gold 00:24:20 - Bitcoin 10-Year Return Scenarios Analysis 00:29:10 - Bitcoin vs Gold: Long-Term Investment Comparison 00:32:26 - Gold Price Projections and Long-Term Trends 00:35:59 - Bitcoin vs Gold: Supply and Demand Dynamics 00:41:07 - Gold's Historical Price Trends and Limits 00:47:41 - Bitcoin Mining Revenue After Halving 00:51:20 - Bitcoin's Revenue Compared to Oil and Gold 00:55:20 - Bitcoin's Price Performance and Currency Comparisons 01:01:00 - Currency Devaluation and Global Economic Trends 01:04:23 - Bitcoin's Long-Term Power Curve Advantage 01:10:22 - Bitcoin Valuation and Global Currency Trends 01:13:30 - Tech Market Cap Room to Grow 01:21:51 - Gold Supply Demand Imbalance Analysis Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792