Bitcoin, Gold, and Power Curves in an Uncertain World

Show Notes

This episode opens the new year with a wide ranging reflection on Bitcoin’s power curve, market structure, and the global political forces shaping the coming decade. Matthew begins one day before Bitcoin’s 17th birthday, revisiting the Genesis Block and framing where price sits today relative to long term trend. At roughly 89,000 dollars, Bitcoin is positioned between the 40th and 50th percentile on a multiples basis, placing it slightly below fair value but well within normal historical bounds. He discusses whether the traditional four year cycle may be weakening, while remaining open to the possibility that cycles are still intact but harder to read in a more institutional market. Matthew then turns to Bitcoin priced in gold, highlighting a stark divergence. While Bitcoin remains close to trend in dollar terms, it is extremely cheap relative to gold, trading near levels last seen in 2022 despite being roughly double the dollar price. He walks through why a return to historical gold based trend would imply significantly higher Bitcoin prices even without further gold appreciation. The episode also revisits stock to flow and contrasts it with the power curve using out of sample testing. Matthew shows why stock to flow behaves like an exponential model and consistently fails, while the power curve remains remarkably stable even when projected using limited historical data. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 320 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:10 - Bitcoin's 17th Birthday: Power Curve Analysis 00:05:21 - Crypto Cycles: Different This Time? 00:10:38 - Bitcoin and Gold Price Analysis Comparison 00:12:58 - Bitcoin vs Gold: Extreme Undervaluation Analysis 00:17:09 - Power Curve vs Stock-to-Flow Models 00:21:26 - Bitcoin's Growth Path: Power Curve vs Exponential 00:25:11 - Ukraine's Cost Per Russian Casualty Analysis 00:28:05 - Ukraine War Economics and Casualty Costs 00:31:59 - Eastern Europe's Fight Against Authoritarianism 00:37:41 - Russian Talk Shows and Lack of Free Speech 00:40:03 - Disinformation and Banned Platforms in Russia 00:42:11 - Lithuania's Fight for Freedom and Speech 00:46:43 - Russia's War Strength and Western Deterrence Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792