Bitcoin Hits 1.25x Trend—What That Says About the Cycle

Show Notes

Matt’s back with a cycle check and a quick update on Bitcoin’s trend-to-price multiple, which just tapped 1.25x. That’s not high - actually, it’s right in the mid-cycle zone. He walks through what this level has meant in past cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), how long we’ve historically spent above it, and what it might signal if this rally continues. He also breaks down how the trend multiple behaves around blow-off tops, pointing out how rare and brief those high-multiple moments actually are. So if you’re waiting for the parabolic move, the data shows we’re not there yet. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 283 Chapters: 00:00:00 - US Money Supply vs Federal Debt Analysis 00:08:18 - Gold's 5.2% Long-Term Trend Analysis 00:13:50 - Central Banks and Gold Standard History 00:17:31 - Federal Reserve's Growing Treasury Bond Holdings 00:20:47 - Bitcoin Bonds and Power Curve Economics 00:25:49 - Bitcoin Bonds vs Dollar-Denominated Collateral Loans 00:34:14 - Bitcoin's Power Curve vs Traditional Assets 00:38:26 - Bitcoin's Sustainable Power Curve Growth 00:41:13 - Bitcoin Power vs Exponential Growth Models 00:48:55 - Bitcoin Treasury Companies Bankruptcy Risks 00:57:12 - Saylor's Model vs Power Law 01:01:05 - Bitcoin's Declining Growth Rate Problem 01:07:40 - Bitcoin vs Gold Growth Rates 01:19:58 - Bitcoin Yield Models and Power Curves 01:24:48 - Bitcoin's Future: Exponential vs Sustainable Growth 01:27:28 - Bitcoin's Long-term Impact on Society Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792