Bitcoin Is Still Deeply Undervalued | The Power Law Says So

Show Notes

Matthew returns from Prague and revisits one of the most important frameworks for understanding Bitcoin: the power law and quantile regression model. He explains how Bitcoin is currently trading near some of the lowest historical quantiles relative to its long-term trend, suggesting that the asset remains deeply discounted despite recent market stabilization. Using evolving quantile regressions, Matthew shows how Bitcoin’s support bands continue to hold and argues that current price levels resemble major accumulation zones seen in previous cycles. The discussion explores whether the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is finally breaking down, noting that Bitcoin would only need to return to roughly break-even levels by year-end to invalidate previous post-halving bear market behavior. Matthew also compares Bitcoin against gold, global money supply, and other macro indicators, arguing that Bitcoin’s power-law growth remains intact even as traditional monetary systems continue expanding exponentially. Beyond Bitcoin, the episode examines Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction, Treasury demand, stablecoins as potential buyers of government debt, and the long-term implications of monetary expansion. Matthew also touches on demographic trends, declining fertility rates, and how broader economic systems continue to face structural challenges. Throughout the episode, he emphasizes that Bitcoin remains one of the few assets exhibiting sustainable power-law growth rather than exponential debt-driven growth. The episode concludes with the view that current Bitcoin prices represent a compelling long-term opportunity, even if short-term volatility remains. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 377 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:00 - Bitcoin's Power Law Quantile Regression Analysis 00:05:49 - Bitcoin Power Law Analysis and Market Bottom 00:11:05 - Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle and Year-End Outlook 00:13:22 - Fed Deregulation and Bank Bond Buying Strategy 00:15:29 - Bitcoin's Power Curve and Gold Relationship 00:19:21 - Global Money Supply and China's M2 Impact 00:20:09 - Money Supply, Bitcoin, and Market Trends Analysis 00:23:05 - Europe's Declining Birth Rates Compared Globally 00:23:51 - Tech Giants, Birth Rates, and Bitcoin 00:26:09 - Crypto Ultra-Long Trade Opportunity Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.