Bitcoin Just Dropped Below Trend - Here’s What That Means

Show Notes

Matt’s back breaking down the curveball in the data: a sharp little dip in Bitcoin’s price-to-trend ratio. No, it’s not a crash, and no, it doesn’t break the power curve. In fact, we’ve seen these little resets before, especially mid-cycle. What’s different now is how short-lived they’re getting. He compares this latest drop to similar moves in 2016, 2020, and even 2012, each one offering a brief but clean setup before things took off. Miner revenue? Still solid. Fee market? Nothing overheated. Macro panic? Nope, just a reset before the next leg. Matt walks through the historical pattern and lays out a few price targets depending on how far this cycle wants to stretch. Think of this episode as a sanity check. The power curve’s intact, Bitcoin’s not broken, and this dip might end up being a blip. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 280 Chapters: 00:00:00 Intro: Friday Market Check-In 00:00:26 Bitcoin Back Above the Power Curve 00:01:31 Bitcoin vs Gold: The Historical Context 00:04:22 Can Bitcoin Match Gold’s Performance? 00:06:05 Why Bitcoin Is Still Undervalued in Gold Terms 00:07:10 Projecting Bitcoin’s Value at $4K Gold 00:09:53 Bitcoin to $500K? The Gold-Adjusted Scenario 00:11:18 The Power Curve and Long-Term Adoption 00:17:12 Why Bitcoin’s Growth Follows Network Power 00:20:04 Transaction Volume and Network Activity 00:26:12 U.S. Debt Trends and Why Bitcoin Doesn’t Blink 00:32:02 What Makes Money Money: A Lesson for Ray Dalio 00:35:23 Comparing Bitcoin and the Fed: Throughput and Scale 00:41:01 Gold’s Growth Rate vs Bitcoin’s Power Curve 00:45:00 Sustainable Growth and the Future of Bitcoin 00:49:19 Bitcoin vs Fedwire: Payments and Adoption 00:55:04 Fees, Transactions, and Signs of Market Health 00:59:43 Political Segment: Ukraine, Trump, and the War Debate 01:13:06 Bitcoin as a Lifeline for Charities and Ukraine 01:17:13 Orban, Hungary, and European Economic Gaps 01:21:27 Wrapping Up: Bitcoin, Geopolitics, and Perspective 01:25:20 Final Thoughts and Weekend Sign-Off Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792