Bitcoin Miner Revenue, Cycles, and a Tough Market to Read

Show Notes

This episode focuses on one of the hardest environments to analyze in Bitcoin markets, periods where indicators roll over without a clear signal of either a blow off top or a secular bear. Matthew begins by returning to Bitcoin miner revenue and the price to sales ratio, explaining how this multiple has historically identified cycle extremes. In past cycles, blow off tops were marked by sharp spikes well above trend. Today, the multiple has rolled over but remains near its long term trend, creating ambiguity rather than confirmation. Matthew walks through both monthly and yearly miner revenue and shows that current annual revenue is roughly 17 billion dollars, similar to levels seen three years ago. While this represents a decline from the fee driven peaks around the halving, it does not automatically signal a bear market. In fact, previous halvings produced similar slowdowns before revenue resumed growth. This supports the idea that the traditional four year cycle may be weakening or breaking entirely. He then shifts to quantile regression on price, showing Bitcoin trading slightly below the 30th percentile. Statistically, this remains normal territory, even if it feels uncomfortable. Bitcoin priced in gold remains extremely cheap, reinforcing the view that downside risk may be limited on a relative basis. The episode closes with a broader reflection on confidence, long term adoption, and why the power curve continues to offer stability in an increasingly noisy market environment. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 316 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bitcoin Price to Sales Ratio Analysis 00:04:01 - Bitcoin Price Cycles and Secular Bull Analysis 00:08:49 - Bitcoin Miner Revenue and Market Cycles Analysis 00:13:02 - Bitcoin Valuation and Mining Revenue Analysis 00:18:19 - Bitcoin's Power Curve and Adoption Metrics 00:21:24 - Analyzing Historical Trends and Power Curves 00:23:03 - Bitcoin Power Curve Analysis and Price Projections 00:26:57 - Power Regressions and Long-Term Metrics Analysis 00:30:51 - Early Bitcoin Mining and Developer History 00:33:17 - We're All Early in Bitcoin's Timeline 00:36:42 - AI Revolution Transforming Market Analysis Tools 00:43:26 - AI Automation and the Future of Human Work 00:48:05 - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Hodling Strategy Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792