Bitcoin Models Compared: Power Curve vs Stock-to-Flow Explained

Show Notes

In this clip, Matthew breaks down the fundamental differences between two popular Bitcoin valuation models: the Power Curve and the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. He explains why the power trend—a smooth, concave curve based on days since Bitcoin's genesis block—better reflects long-term adoption, with a historically strong R² of 96%. Matthew critiques the Stock-to-Flow model for its stair-step structure and economic abstraction, pointing out its inconsistent fit with past price peaks, especially in 2021. While S2F uses Bitcoin’s declining supply growth rate, Matthew shows how that doesn’t align as cleanly with real market cycles. This episode is ideal for anyone looking to understand the math and assumptions behind long-term Bitcoin price models, and why exponential forecasts often mislead. Porkopolis Economics Episode 223 Chapters: 00:00:11 - Evaluating US Federal Debt in 2025 00:00:47 - Fed's Debt Monetization Trends 00:02:07 - Safe Haven Assets in Economic Fear 00:02:40 - American Ownership of Debt Analysis 00:03:29 - Trends in American Debt Ownership Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donate.basemoney.world/i/9Y1RzT4cp3y8VEYhjEKkwi Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io Twitter: https://x.com/crypto_voices?lang=en Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. #bitcoin #economics #cryptocurrency