Bitcoin Models, Power Curves, and a World Losing Its Balance

Show Notes

This episode combines a detailed correction of Bitcoin modeling assumptions with a wide ranging and deeply personal discussion of geopolitics, ideology, and systemic risk. Matthew opens by revisiting the Bitcoin power curve, explaining why recent confusion around percentiles and apparent weakness was the result of a technical error. The issue came down to incorrectly setting the starting point of the model. Once corrected to begin at Bitcoin’s true origin in January 2009, the curve realigns across currencies. Bitcoin remains near the 50th percentile and well within historical norms. He walks viewers through Bitcoin’s valuation relative to major monetary bases including the U.S. dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling, Turkish lira, and Iranian rial. Across nearly every currency, the power curve holds with strong statistical fit. Even in extreme cases like Iran, Bitcoin remains close to trend while being roughly 190 times larger than the central bank balance sheet. The takeaway is methodological discipline. Small modeling choices can create false signals if not carefully checked. The second half of the episode shifts sharply into geopolitics and ideology. Matthew discusses mass repression in Iran, historical atrocities in Eastern Europe, and growing concern over extremist rhetoric and authoritarian language emerging in Western politics. Drawing on Baltic history, he warns that slogans, dehumanization, and power politics are not abstract ideas but precursors to real violence. He closes by emphasizing that Bitcoin remains a tool of long term protection, but moral clarity and civic responsibility matter just as much in unstable times. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 328 Chapters: 00:00:04 - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Market Cycles 00:03:04 - Bitcoin vs Global Central Bank Balance Sheets 00:09:59 - Power Curve Regression Analysis for Bitcoin 00:14:49 - Understanding Bollinger Bands and Percentiles 00:22:29 - Verifying AI-Generated Bitcoin Charts 00:25:44 - Bitcoin Power Curve Flattening Over Time 00:29:52 - Federal Reserve M3 Data and Repo Market Risks 00:34:50 - Iran's Brutal Crackdown and Western Hypocrisy 00:39:05 - America's Domestic Crisis and Authoritarian Warning Signs 00:42:07 - Nazi Ideology and Historical Warnings for America 00:46:27 - Latgolian Language and Nazi Genocide Plans 00:48:01 - Doubts About November Election and US Foreign Policy 00:50:54 - Great Powers and Geopolitical Tensions 00:55:30 - Bitcoin Cycles and Long-Term Network Growth 00:59:50 - The Old Order is Breaking Down 01:03:55 - Democracy, Autocracy, and America's Direction Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792