Bitcoin’s Heating Up - But It’s Not Topping Out Yet

Show Notes

Matt’s back with another Bitcoin check-in, this time looking at where we sit in the cycle using his go-to: the power curve. Price is a bit above trend, PSR’s heating up (hovering around 140x), but it doesn’t feel like we’ve hit full euphoria. Miner fee activity is still chill, and a lot of the usual top signals aren’t firing yet. Matt walks through some percentile math, lays out what price targets might look like if things stretch to previous cycle levels, and explains why he’s still leaning mid-cycle—not blow-off. A quick gut-check with historical patterns, mining stats, and a few macro comparisons to keep things grounded. If you’re trying to make sense of where Bitcoin’s at without the noise, this one’s for you. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 279 Chapters: 00:00:00 Intro: Market Update and Opening Thoughts 00:00:26 Bitcoin Power Curve Explained 00:02:16 Median, Trend Lines, and Market Position 00:03:41 Why “This Time Is Different” Might Not Be 00:05:11 The Four-Year Cycle and Uptober Outlook 00:07:23 Setting Realistic Price Targets ($125K–$350K) 00:10:24 Managing Risk and Market Noise 00:13:23 Projecting the Next Bitcoin Cycle 00:15:02 Bitcoin’s PSR: The Price-to-Sales Ratio 00:17:59 Miner Revenue, Fees, and Network Health 00:29:57 Economic Context and Market Comparisons 00:38:41 Bitcoin Measured in Gold Terms 00:40:29 Closing Thoughts and Outlook Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792