Bitcoin’s Trend Bands: Why the Cycle Is Not Over

Show Notes

Matthew opens this episode by revisiting Bitcoin’s position on the long term power curve, emphasizing how the last two years have stayed tightly within the 40th to 70th percentile range rather than repeating the extreme peaks seen in 2021. He highlights why this statistical band matters, how it captures roughly one third of Bitcoin’s entire trading history, and why staying near trend for this long increases the odds of a strong future move rather than a deep breakdown. He walks through updated HODL waves, UTXO counts, and realized market cap metrics to show a network that is distributing, resetting bases, and still far from the frenzy that historically precedes true cycle tops. The episode also expands into macro comparisons, including gold’s record breaking mining revenues, oil’s massive scale, and Bitcoin’s still tiny footprint next to global commodities. Matthew uses these benchmarks to illustrate both Bitcoin’s early stage and its potential as it integrates deeper into energy markets. He examines realized profit and loss waves, shows how selling pressure resembles prior sideways periods rather than a final top, and reiterates why a blow off remains statistically possible even if Wall Street’s presence makes timing harder. The episode closes with fiscal charts, liquidity trends, and Matthew’s view that the cycle is not invalidated until well into next year. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 301 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bitcoin Sideways Movement Above 100k 00:02:57 - Bitcoin Price Levels and Power Trend Analysis 00:06:12 - Analyzing Bitcoin Hodl Waves and Long-Term Holders 00:10:09 - Bitcoin Valuation and UTXO Analysis 00:12:41 - Analyzing HODL Waves and Realized Cap Ratios 00:22:06 - Bitcoin Mining Revenue vs Gold and Oil 00:24:36 - Comparing Bitcoin, Gold, and Oil Markets 00:28:56 - Bitcoin's Price Relative to Gold Analysis 00:32:04 - Bitcoin Price Projection and Market Analysis 00:36:44 - Live Bitcoin Trading Analysis Update 00:42:18 - Bitcoin Market Depth vs Traditional Assets 00:45:47 - Bitcoin Growth Beyond Fed Actions 00:50:39 - Government Spending vs Tax Revenue Analysis 00:54:33 - Analyzing Coin Dumping During Price Growth 01:00:21 - Realized Profit Taking at Market Tops 01:06:36 - Bitcoin Cycle Analysis and Price Targets Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792