Did Bitcoin’s Real Cycle Top Happen Earlier Than You Think?

Show Notes

Most Bitcoin cycle models point to the same moments for market tops. But what if they’re missing something important? In this clip, Matthew examines the idea that Bitcoin’s historical peaks might follow a harmonic cycle pattern stretching from 2011 through 2021 and potentially into the next cycle. While that theory has some credibility, he introduces another metric he finds even more compelling: Bitcoin’s Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR). PSR measures the total market value of Bitcoin relative to the annual revenue earned by miners. When this ratio reaches extreme levels, it has historically signaled major market tops. And here’s the interesting part. When you look at the PSR data, the well-known November 2021 peak doesn’t appear to be the most extreme moment in the cycle. Instead, earlier price action may have represented the true statistical top. The takeaway: no single model perfectly predicts Bitcoin cycles, but examining fundamentals like miner revenue can reveal patterns many investors overlook. A Clip From Porkopolis Economics Episode 327 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:16 - Bitcoin Price Cycles and PSR Analysis 00:01:15 - Mt. Gox Hacks and Bitcoin's Statistical Peak 00:01:41 - Bitcoin's Fundamental Tops and Power Law Analysis 00:02:41 - Understanding Bitcoin's Price-to-Sales Ratio 00:03:38 - March Top and the Scam Top Analysis Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donate.basemoney.world/i/9Y1RzT4cp3y8VEYhjEKkwi Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io Twitter: https://x.com/porkopolis_econ Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. #economics #bitcoin #unitedstates