Is Bitcoin’s Four Year Cycle Breaking Down?

Show Notes

Bitcoin’s current price action, trend position, and relationship to gold take center stage in this episode as Matthew analyzes whether the four year cycle structure is nearing its end or simply entering a late stage pullback. He walks through APSK’s cloud model, current percentile positioning, and where Bitcoin sits relative to both its long-term power-law trend and short-term market behavior. With Bitcoin now cheap when priced in gold, he highlights the growing divergence between the two assets and the possibility that Bitcoin may be setting up for a strong rebound if the gold trend cools. Matthew also breaks down long-term holder rotation, showing how millions of coins have changed hands in the last two years as ETFs, institutions, and new market participants absorb older supply. He contrasts Bitcoin’s steady supply mechanics with the explosive valuations seen across major tech companies fueled by AI growth, noting that tech and gold are running at nearly identical short-term CAGRs. The episode closes with a discussion about liquidity, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and how capital may eventually flow between Bitcoin and AI as competing growth narratives evolve. It is a forward-looking, chart-heavy session focused on where Bitcoin stands heading into year-end. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 297 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Fed Balance Sheet Trends 00:05:04 - Bitcoin's Changing Hands: Early Investors Monetizing 00:14:07 - Major Coin Holdings and Market Movements 00:19:44 - Bitcoin Price Trends and Long-Term Projections 00:25:24 - Gold Trends and Bitcoin's Future Potential 00:28:52 - Bitcoin Supply Analysis and Market Timing 00:32:29 - Bitcoin Support Levels and Price Analysis 00:37:33 - Bitcoin Price Targets and Support Levels Analysis 00:42:23 - Fed Repo Facilities and Market Liquidity Dynamics 00:47:44 - Tech Giants' Explosive 3x Growth in Three Years 00:54:27 - Gold and Bitcoin's Unsustainable Record Run 01:00:46 - Gold and Tech Valuations Compared 01:05:48 - Bitcoin vs AI: Capital Allocation Debate 01:08:53 - Tech Stock Growth Since ChatGPT Release 01:10:28 - Bitcoin vs AI: Market Growth Comparison 01:14:26 - Bitcoin Price Support Levels and Year-End Outlook Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792