Is Bitcoin’s Power Curve Breaking or Holding Firm

Show Notes

This episode addresses one of the most common fears in the Bitcoin market right now. Is the power curve breaking. Matthew walks through the concern calmly and methodically, showing why current price action remains well within historical norms even as volatility unsettles investors. Bitcoin is trading near the 30th percentile on the quantile regression, with short term price sitting around 92,000 while the long term trend continues to rise toward the low 120,000s by year end. He emphasizes that short term weakness does not invalidate network driven growth. The core of the episode focuses on the evolution of the power curve itself. Matthew revisits how early Bitcoin data produced wildly inflated projections and explains why stability only emerged after 2016, once sufficient adoption data existed. Using historical projections, he shows that even the worst prior stretch in May 2017 still implied a present day valuation near 115,000. Bitcoin has not yet fallen below that historical floor, meaning the model has not set new lows. Matthew then turns to ETF flows, volatility compression, miner revenue, and holder behavior. While ETFs remain in a mild deleveraging phase, the pace is slowing and volatility continues to fall. He closes by examining Bitcoin priced in gold, which is scraping the lowest percentile ever observed. The takeaway is simple. The power curve remains intact, and discipline matters more than fear. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 314 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:06 - Bitcoin Power Curve Analysis and Stability 00:04:26 - Fixing Data Gaps in Evolution Charts 00:08:10 - Bitcoin Power Trend Stability Analysis 00:10:44 - Bitcoin Power Trend Analysis and Price Projections 00:14:05 - Bitcoin 2030 Price Projection Analysis 00:16:42 - Bitcoin Price Support Levels and ETF Flows 00:22:06 - Bitcoin vs Gold: Bottoming Out Analysis 00:31:38 - Bitcoin Trading Indicators and Price Predictions 00:38:28 - Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Price Projections 00:45:47 - Bitcoin Power Curve Analysis and HODL Metrics 01:02:36 - Bitcoin UTXOs and Market Cycle Analysis 01:19:12 - Bitcoin Power Curve Analysis and Models 01:25:07 - Bitcoin Bullish Case Despite Market Volatility Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792 Never financial advice 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792