Stock-to-Flow Breakdown: Why Bitcoin’s Power Curve Still Wins

Show Notes

In this episode, Matthew puts the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model back under the microscope, comparing it across Bitcoin, gold, and silver using actual stock-to-flow values over the past 15+ years. He argues that Bitcoin’s S2F increases over time, while gold and silver maintain near-constant ratios—making their inclusion in cross-asset models misleading. He walks through how Bitcoin's price moves in power, not exponential, and why mixing asset classes with fundamentally different growth curves distorts predictions. Matthew shows that while S2F offers some directional insight (number-go-up logic), its predictive power is weak compared to Bitcoin’s power curve regression, which has held a 96% R² fit since 2016. By comparing exponential, S2F-based, and pure power models out to 2030 and beyond, he shows that the simplest model wins—with power offering the most conservative and statistically reliable guide for future valuations. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 192 Chapters: 00:00:04 - Understanding Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model 00:03:32 - Bitcoin Stock to Flow Analysis 00:05:25 - Stock to Flow Analysis of Gold and Silver 00:09:41 - Bitcoin vs. Gold and Silver Analysis 00:11:54 - Bitcoin Price Trends and Predictions 00:15:31 - Understanding Stock-to-Flow Model 00:16:59 - Analyzing Bitcoin's Stock to Flow Model 00:18:31 - Bitcoin Stock to Flow Predictions 00:20:17 - Bitcoin Emission and Market Trends 00:21:53 - Analyzing Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Model 00:24:17 - Analyzing Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model 00:27:22 - Bitcoin Price Predictions and Models 00:29:49 - Power Trends in Bitcoin Investment Show Sponsors: Trezor - https://trezor.io/ Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.