Stock-to-Flow Debunked: Why Bitcoin Is Power, Not Scarcity Math

Show Notes

In this episode, Matthew continues examining the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. Armed with charts, spreadsheets, and raw statistical firepower, he demonstrates how the S2F model’s application to gold, silver, and Bitcoin is riddled with cherry-picked data, flawed assumptions, and mathematical sleight of hand. He dismantles the logic behind PlanB’s original and revised cross-asset models—questioning why silver’s stock-to-flow ratio was arbitrarily shown as 3, 22, or even 30, while gold remained fixed at 60. Through meticulous breakdowns, Matthew shows how CAGR and doubling time offer a far more rigorous and consistent framework for evaluating asset growth than S2F. He proves that Bitcoin's price follows a power curve, not exponential growth, and that Bitcoin’s supply growth is logarithmic—unlike gold and silver, which track exponential curves. With an R² of just 1.58, Matthew reveals that a truly data-driven S2F trendline fails to support PlanB’s conclusions. His closing message is clear: price is the highest market signal, not an abstract scarcity metric. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 189 Chapters: 00:00:13 - Analyzing Stock to Flow Model Failures 00:06:07 - Understanding Bitcoin's Price Trends 00:22:19 - Understanding Gold's Growth Metrics 00:27:21 - Analyzing Silver's Stock to Flow Metrics 00:40:55 - Stock to Flow Debate in Precious Metals 00:43:04 - Gold vs. Silver Stock to Flow Analysis 00:59:52 - Understanding Stock to Flow Models 01:06:38 - Understanding Stock to Flow Metrics 01:20:24 - Bitcoin's Price and Market Trends 01:23:11 - Bitcoin vs Gold and Silver Trends Show Sponsors: Trezor - https://trezor.io/ Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. #gold #bitcoin #stocks