Stock-to-Flow Is Broken: Bitcoin Follows Power, Not Exponential Growth!
Show Notes
In this numbers-heavy episode, Matthew returns to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model—this time with spreadsheets, charts, and blunt critiques. He methodically deconstructs the foundations of the S2F cross-asset model by comparing Bitcoin, gold, and silver using multiple valuation methods. Through compound annual growth rates (CAGR), doubling times, and historical market cap trends, Matthew exposes the flaws, cherry-picked data, and internal contradictions in how S2F has been applied—especially to silver. Matthew argues that Bitcoin follows a power curve, not exponential growth like gold and silver. He highlights how stock-to-flow values for gold and silver have remained consistent over decades, while Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow increases over time by design. Ultimately, he shows that price—not scarcity—is the highest market signal, and warns against shoehorning assets with different growth profiles into a one-size-fits-all model. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 188 Chapters: 00:00:13 - Analyzing Stock to Flow Model 00:05:51 - Understanding Market Trends and Bitcoin 00:08:51 - Bitcoin's Logarithmic Supply Growth 00:15:58 - Understanding Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Model 00:19:53 - Stock to Flow Analysis Explained 00:25:31 - Comparing Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Valuations 00:39:59 - Understanding Silver's Stock to Flow 00:42:24 - Gold vs. Silver Stock to Flow 00:45:01 - Analyzing Stock to Flow Models 00:57:23 - Bitcoin Market Cap Trends and Analysis 01:05:40 - Understanding Bitcoin's Growth Patterns 01:24:21 - Understanding Market Signals and Trends Show Sponsors: Trezor - https://trezor.io/ Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. #stocktrading #bitcoin #gold
