Why Bitcoin Gets LESS Volatile Over Time (Power Curve Explained)

Show Notes

In this episode of Porkopolis Economics, the host breaks down Bitcoin’s power law model and explains why Bitcoin’s volatility is actually declining over time despite market swings. Using regression analysis and quantile modeling, he contrasts Bitcoin’s power curve growth with the exponential growth of stocks like the Magnificent Seven, arguing that equities can become more volatile relative to trend while Bitcoin’s price converges toward its long-term trajectory. The discussion also touches on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy, interest rates, and global geopolitics, including tensions involving Russia, Iran, Hungary, and the broader balance between democratic and autocratic systems. On-chain data such as UTXO holder losses and the Bitcoin four-year cycle are examined as indicators that the market may be near a bottom. The episode concludes with the argument that Bitcoin’s statistical trend still appears intact and that current price levels may represent a long-term opportunity. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 356 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:04 - Testing New Software and Power Curve Discussion 00:02:48 - Evolving Regression Analysis Bitcoin Volatility 00:05:16 - Bitcoin vs Magnificent 7 Valuation Trends 00:08:01 - Quantile Regression Better Tracks Volatility 00:10:12 - Bitcoin's True Growth Bound Through Quantile Regression 00:13:47 - Bitcoin Multiples Collapse Over Time 00:16:58 - Bitcoin's Unique Multiplicative Effect vs Stock Market 00:19:22 - Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and Bitcoin Analysis 00:26:17 - Global Currency Reserves and Military Spending Analysis 00:29:46 - Dictators Falling While Markets Rally 00:35:05 - Hungary's Election: Geopolitical Tensions Ahead 00:38:10 - Orbán's Spectacular Political Downfall Over Ukraine 00:40:53 - Bitcoin Cycles and European Political Tensions 00:47:42 - Global South Growth and Geopolitical Tensions 00:54:45 - Bitcoin Risk Assessment and Trend Analysis Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.