Why Bitcoin Still Follows a Power Law, Not Exponential Hype

Show Notes

A technical walkthrough of Bitcoin’s power curve at a moment when global headlines remain chaotic. Matthew opens with a reminder to zoom out. While short-term charts show weakness, Bitcoin continues to trade between the 40th and 50th percentile of the power curve, a range that has held for months. The model updates daily and naturally drifts lower when price sits below trend, but the overall structure remains statistically strong with an R squared near 96 percent since 2016. Matthew then revisits miner revenue and valuation multiples, highlighting an important signal. In prior cycles, miner revenue per year expanded dramatically near cycle tops. That has not happened this cycle. Instead, revenue growth remains muted following the halving, which he views as potentially constructive rather than bearish. When Bitcoin has failed to break down below key power curve relationships in the past, it has often preceded higher prices later. A major portion of the episode is devoted to explaining why exponential and stock to flow models fail, while power law behavior persists. Matthew walks through logarithmic, exponential, and power regressions, showing why Bitcoin behaves like a network rather than a commodity or equity. Power laws grow proportionally with age, not at a constant rate, which explains slower but more sustainable appreciation. Porkopolis Economics - Episode 331 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Market Trends 00:02:43 - Bitcoin Adoption Trend Remains Bullish 00:05:54 - Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis and Multiple Indicators 00:08:59 - Bitcoin Price Projections Using Adoption Trends 00:11:50 - Bitcoin's Exponential Growth and Debt Scenarios 00:14:14 - Power Laws vs Exponential Growth in Bitcoin 00:19:17 - Bitcoin as a Network Power Law 00:21:25 - Setting Up Trading Charts and EMAs 00:24:36 - Bitcoin Power Law Trend Analysis 00:32:37 - Central Bank Balance Sheets and Money Supply Growth 00:36:28 - Logarithmic Regression Analysis Bitcoin Charts 00:38:36 - Bitcoin's Power Law Growth Pattern 00:43:45 - Bitcoin Power Trend Analysis and Price Projections 00:46:49 - Bitcoin Price Predictions and Weekly Outlook Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Porkopolis Economics covers macroeconomics, money, geopolitics and sports from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast, Matthew Mezinskis. Data-driven. Scale matters. Smaller, decentralized states means more opportunity for liberty than larger ones. Host: Matthew Mezinskis https://porkopolis.io https://x.com/1basemoney Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6266922845601792