The Hidden Force Behind Stocks, Bitcoin, and Bubbles

Show Notes

▬▬▬ DISCUSSION ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2Fk ▬▬▬ EPISODE ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ In this episode, dive into a comprehensive discussion on modern monetary theory, macroeconomic modeling, and how fiscal flows influence markets and assets like Bitcoin with Douglas Padgett -- a macro researcher and founder of Applied MMT. He shares his insights on government spending, private credit cycles, and the importance of flow analysis for market forecasting. Follow Douglas Padgett 👉 https://x.com/MMTmacrotrader ▬▬▬ SUPPORT ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ ⚡️LNMS on Lightning: [email protected] ₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p 💵https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00 Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7. ▬▬▬ LINKS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/ 🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn 🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku 🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw 🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p 🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/ 📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013 🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn ▬▬▬ SOCIALS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahueg Follow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascal Follow on LinkedIn 👉 https://www.linkedin.com/in/pascal-huegli/ ▬▬▬ CHAPTERS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 00:00 Intro 01:32 Why traditional textbooks overlook the real macro regime post-1970s 02:02 Douglas's background: Austrian roots and transition to MMT-based macro analysis 04:18 Core ideas of Modern Monetary Theory and government’s role in creating financial assets 12:39 Defining applied MMT: profits, profits sources, and the profit cycle 15:17 How government spending acts as an asset and profit driver 19:00 The mechanics of government borrowing and liabilities as assets 23:41 The role of repo markets and reserves in government spending 32:15 The real fiscal deficit impulse and its predictive power 44:37 Private debt cycles and leverage in macro analysis 49:35 Deep MMT: advanced forecasting tools and system dynamic models 01:06:01 Correlation between fiscal flows and Bitcoin price movements 01:10:27 Why fiscal flows provide a clearer picture than Fed liquidity 01:13:08 The nature of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and its implications 01:14:33 The relationship between bond issuance, reserves, and fiscal policy 01:20:23 How to connect with Douglas for further insights --- Disclaimer The publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural persons only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.