Bitcoin Treasury Stocks: Sentiment or Structure? Deep Dive with Adrian Morris | SLP749

In this episode, Adrian Morris joins the show to discuss Bitcoin Treasury Companies. We explore whether MSTR and STRC are over, sustainable mNAV premiums, the impact of leverage, the right way to calculate mNAV, how many such companies can realistically exist, and how this space evolves through bull and bear markets.

Timestamps:

00:00 What are Bitcoin Treasury Skeptics Getting Wrong?

03:55 Is it over for STRC? Par vs Peg

06:30 The level of correlation to Bitcoin price

07:10 Critiques of STRC marketing?

09:02 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Correlation

10:50 Should Strategy Do Something About STRC?

13:55 Is it a waiting game?

14:40 Is the bitcoin treasury risk mispriced? When is a premium justified?

19:26 Leverage or Amplification embedded in the structure

24:10 Operating or Financing Flows to Get Bitcoin?

26:15 mNAV

29:12 Thoughts on CEBE Analysis

32:30 Different forms of mNAV

36:12 Sentiment’s role is amplified

40:32 “Just Tread Water and Survive Until the Bull”

42:47 Will the Correlation to Bitcoin Price increase over time?

46:18 Growth Opportunities: Mergers and Acquisitions 

48:23 The Bitcoin Treasury Model - How Replicable is it?

51:50 Where are we in this cycle?

53:42 AI Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Investors

58:55 Is AI being overbuilt? 

1:01:40 Open Weights and Local AI?

Links: 

• Adrian on X: https://x.com/_Adrian

• True North: https://tnorth.com/

• Bitcoin For Corporations: https://bitcoinforcorporations.com/

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

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