Show Notes
Bitcoin desire sentiment has fallen to an eight-year low, a contrarian signal that historically aligns with market bottoms rather than tops.
Michael Sullivan, an engineer and author, applies machine learning to individual X accounts to track granular Bitcoin emotions and moods over time.
He examines how entry eras shape lasting narratives, why pro-BIP 110 cohorts show strikingly low conviction, how individual tracking avoids bot pollution, and why boredom plus infighting often mark optimal accumulation zones.
Timestamps:
01:44 — Conviction Isn't Bullish or Bearish
07:05 — Why Individual X Tracking Beats Bots
09:53 — Desire Peaks Flag Bull Market Tops
11:49 — Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low
16:27 — New Bitcoiners Angriest Right Now
21:00 — Bitcoin Entry Era Shapes Your Views Forever?
22:48 — BIP 110 Backers Show Strikingly Low Conviction
25:33 — Pro-BIP 110 Group Lives in Its Own Bubble
28:39 — BIP110 Brigading Creates Fake Consensus
31:57 — OGs Optimistic, Plebs Stay Angry
37:13 — X Algo Shift Sparks Bitcoin Optimism
39:57 — Why Sentiment Metrics Fail for Trading
41:55 — Boredom and Infighting Signal Bitcoin Bottom
Links:
Michael's X: https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan
Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly on Substack: https://sentimentsully.substack.com
Michael’s novel, Blood of the Bourgeoisie: https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Bourgeoisie-Michael-R-Sullivan-ebook/dp/B0FRZTM49Y
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
