Is This Bitcoin Bottom Different? Cycles, MicroStrategy, and Real Bitcoin

• Brady and John open with sports talk, covering the Knicks’ dramatic OG Anunoby tip-in and the World Cup kicking off in North America
• Bitcoin is back near $63K, prompting a discussion of whether current drawdown conditions resemble past cycle bottoms
• John reviews Alex Thorn’s Galaxy analysis showing that only 4 of 13 classic Bitcoin bottom signals have triggered, while the prior October 2025 top also showed only 2 of 11 classic top signals
• The hosts argue Bitcoin’s cycles may be changing as the asset matures, with ETFs, institutional capital, and deeper liquidity potentially compressing both tops and bottoms
• They revisit supply-in-profit metrics, noting that the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has fallen to levels similar to prior cycle bottoms
• Brady and John emphasize long-term conviction, recurring buys, and education as the antidote to emotional reactions during sharp Bitcoin drawdowns
• The episode explores whether MicroStrategy’s large Bitcoin holdings are a threat, with both hosts arguing that permissionless accumulation is part of Bitcoin’s design, not a weakness
• They discuss OG coin distribution, institutional absorption, miner selling, and AI-driven market distraction as possible contributors to Bitcoin’s recent 50% decline
• Macro coverage includes a hot CPI print, persistent inflation above target, Kevin Warsh’s Fed dilemma, and why rate cuts may still arrive despite elevated inflation
• Brady introduces Swan’s new Real Bitcoin Exchange, a first-to-market product designed to help ETF holders move from Bitcoin price exposure into real Bitcoin ownership

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